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New Year's Day steel mills replenishment to boost iron ore pricesUpdate time:2017-12-14  Click:

Following a sharp decline last week, iron ore futures remained in a tight range this week. As of yesterday's close, the main iron ore futures contract 1805 to close at 506 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day's closing price rose 0.6%, analysts believe that January New Year approaching, mills or pre-holiday replenishment behavior , Miners are very willing to pay a clear, pre-holiday or a new round of increases.


    Spot transactions weaker

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    Before last Tuesday, DCE futures were in good conditions and the spot market bullish mentality was obvious. At the same time, the performance of downstream materials became stronger. The price of Dumpling rose from 3,810 yuan / tonne on November 24 to 3,970 yuan / ton on December 5, An increase of 160 yuan / ton, boost the iron ore market significantly, the trend of ore prices tend to be stronger. However, the futures market of the DCE came under weaker trend. Although the prices of finished products in the downstream continued to rise, the external mining market saw a clear-cut sentiment while the enthusiasm of the steel mills declined somewhat. Although some mines still sold for quite a while, Product prices are still declining.


    Golden Link analyst Li Ying said iron ore trend in mid-to-late November once let the miners euphemism to Tianjin Port, for example, although the lump ore resource prices continue to decline, but the mainstream high-grade ore Resource prices all the way up, December 5, the port spot sharply increased 10-25 yuan / ton, PB powder price reached the highest value of nearly 540 yuan / ton. However, in addition to the joy of miners, followed by the ore price began to cut, so that traders caught by surprise.


    "The reason, last month 15, the formal implementation of the policy of environmental protection, limited production, the miners think the market demand will be substantially reduced, mid-November port inventory of 138.15 million tons, the greater the pressure on the port, so let the profits of traders. However, precisely because of the implementation of the environmental protection policy, the demand for mainstream high-grade fines resources increased under the high profitability of steel mills. As a result, the mainstream high-grade ore grade prices have been continuously raised. At the same time, the structural ratio of furnaces has been adjusted to increase the sintering proportion, lump ore, As the proportion of pellets decreases, the demand for lump ore has dropped markedly, and the price has been declining. At present, the sintering ratio is 74%, the lump ore is 11% and the pellet is 15%. "Li Ying explained.


    New Year's Day or a new round of increase


    According to statistics, at present, the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 142.63 million tons, up by 450,000 tons from last Friday's data. The average daily port volume rose to 2.7619 million tons from 2.6762 million tons last Friday. Australia's iron ore shipments totaled 165.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.441 million tons from the previous quarter and 14.245 million tons to China, a decrease of 673,000 tons from the previous month. At present, North China prohibits the lifting of the port of motor transport and port policy, lifting the port volume, reducing the port pressure port phenomenon, the current foreign shipments are still large, is expected in the short term port stock is still likely to rise.


    Looking to the market outlook, Li Ying believes that the current mines ore mines maintained at a low level of multi-maintenance, on-demand replenishment-based, January New Year approaching, mills or pre-holiday replenishment behavior, the miners are quite willing to price Obviously, before the holiday or a new round of increase. However, the main body of the current market transactions for the mainstream of high-grade ore resources, the spread between low-grade and high-grade goods continue to widen, the late rising low-end inventory, or the overall price has been pinched, is expected later this month or narrow The increase may be


    In the long term, Zhuo Gui-chiu, an analyst at Jinrui Futures said that the supply and demand of high-grade iron ore will tend to be balanced by the tightness in 2018. The main contradiction affecting the price of iron ore in 2018 is the supply and demand of high-grade mines. It is estimated that in 2018, High-grade ore new supply of at least 50 million tons, iron ore "supply - cost" curve to further down and flat, while large-scale blast furnace to enhance the demand for high-quality ore rigidity, supply and demand of iron ore usher in ore-dominated era. "The price of iron ore is expected to weaken slightly in 2018 with the spot price running at 45-70 US dollars / dry ton, or 400-600 yuan / dry ton."

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